During the war on the territory of Ukraine, the ruble devalued for more than 2 times.

If you judge the price for Forex, now the dollar is trading at about 140 rubles and at the moment reached a mark of 170 rubles. However, bidding currency on the Moscow Stock Exchange is not currently held due to the holidays. Therefore, we do not know what course would be there.

Will we see a dollar at 140 rubles at the opening of Mosbier? And what are the closest perspectives of the ruble?

Recently, Aton analysts released the dollar forecast. Their factor model shows a fair rate at the level of 95 rubles per dollar.

To today's events, their factor model worked well in 2014 and 2020.

The dollar is 95 rubles we can only be seen in the case of de ease of conflict. Unfortunately, so far before de essociate is very far away. Negotiations do not yet provide essential results. Perhaps in the following negotiations will be some moves - it would be a good positive for the ruble.

In general, the longer the war is, the less chance that the ruble will return to 95 rubles per dollar.

Because, every day of hostilities costs Russia into a solid penny, and all new and new sanctions are introduced, which beat on the Russian economy.

Canada has already abandoned Russian oil, it seems that the United States will be as follows. However, Europe, most likely, will not refuse. At least Germany opposes, because European countries depend on Russian oil much more than the United States and Canada.

The share of Russian oil in the import of the European Union is 30%, and in the United States only 8% taking into account petroleum products.

Prices for oil, so, already too high. Most likely, even without complete arbirgo of Russian oil, the global economy will enter the state of recession.

And it seems that the global crisis will soon occur, especially strong it will be in Europe. Gas prices have grown almost 3 times in the last 20 days.

Oil prices in euros have already exceeded the absolute maximum, although there are no long in dollars - this is due to the weakening of the euro in relation to the dollar.

If in 2008 for € 1 was given $ 1.6, now the euro and the dollar equally equal to.

Also, currently a record outflow of capital from European stocks is due not only to the fact that European companies have tremendous difficulties due to translated energy prices, but also due to the care of some companies from the Russian market.

In American companies, the share of the Russian market is quite small (for example, Apple has only 1%, the rest of the American companies that went about as well).

Therefore, it is not a fact that all the departed companies return in the nearest perspective. Some companies will not even notice the loss of revenue.

Let's go back to the ruble. Recently, we watched a rather large difference between the dollar's course on the mosserier and the course on Forex.

There was no such thing in history. Even when there was still auction on the Mosbier (March 4), the spread already reached 20 rubles: on Forex dollar cost 125 rubles, and on the mosserier - 105 rubles.

Therefore, it can be concluded that the price for Forex is due to the greater speculative component.

Long-term picture

While the escalation of the conflict continues, it is not hoping to strengthen the ruble. Macron stated that he did not expect to settle the situation in Ukraine in the near future (I would like to believe that he was mistaken). Therefore, most likely, the ruble will fall on.

Today, thanks for your attention!

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