Today you will find out why in the near future for $ 1 can give 50 rubles.

The ruble is strengthened to the dollar up to 64 rubles. The last time the ruble was so strong at the end of 2019. Will the ruble continue to grow to the American dollar?

From the point of view of technical analysis: if you look at the global trend that started since 1999, the 1st touch was in 1999, the 2nd-in 2008, then in 2011, 2013 and 2015.

And if we return to the global trend, then we will come to a level of 50 rubles per $ 1. Whatever geopolitical and economic situations, we always returned to this trend.

Now historical changes are taking place that we have not yet realized to the end, so we need to watch on a historical scale.

Historical changes occur right before our eyes and we have tickets in the front row. Let's see how the forecast from Sberbank has changed over the past month.

Forecast of the currency market from Sberbank

Optimistic scenario (which was made in April) on the 2nd square. 2022 - 70 rubles. And in the May forecast, an optimistic scenario is already 50 rubles per $ 1.

All this suggests that the state of uncertainty is very high and even professional market participants do not understand what is really happening.

Priorities of the Central Bank

Recently, a very important report of the Central Bank has been published, which, including tells us about its priorities.

In the current situation, the influence of the financial account on the currency course is reduced. The main factor determining the dynamics of the course is the trade balance.

The ruble exchange rate depends on the demand of importers for currency and the proposal of exporters. That is, the strengthening of the ruble is associated with a lower volume of imports - in lower demand of importers for currency.

The main priority for the Central Bank of the Russian Federation is, first of all, financial stability, and not the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate.

For example, in April, the risks for the financial system decreased, and the term of the mandatory sale by exporters of foreign exchange earnings was increased.

Inflation

The Central Bank claims that in the near future we will find structural restructuring of the economy. What will happen to inflation?

Structural restructuring of the economy will only be effective if it occurs in conditions of slowing inflation.

And as we know, a strong ruble helps to slow down inflation. Accordingly, a strong ruble will play on the KB side.

Inflational processes in the Russian economy in the current period are mainly determined by shocks of proposal. That is, this is the most important problem.

To reduce this shock of sentences, you need to increase imports, and imports can be increased just by strengthening the ruble.

Record sursection

In 2022, the export of goods and services in value terms may decrease by 8% (relative to 2021). Import reduction can be 32-36%.

Therefore, according to the results of the year, the surplus of the account of current operations may exceed the historical maximum and reach $ 145 billion, which will constantly lead to the strengthening of the ruble.

Dear import

Many foreign companies have suspended their activities in Russia, as well as a change in the range of imported goods, the complication of logistics routes and the growth of transport costs will lead to the fact that the prices of imported goods and services for all forecasts will be higher than previously established levels.

The West blocks imports for us, as a result, the remaining imports are getting more expensive for us due to the fact that its delivery is complicated. And in contrast to this factor, we have the desire to strengthen the ruble in order to at least somehow facilitate imports into the country.

What will be the ruble course?

And in this paradigm everything turns upside down. Control over the movement of capital will remain, influence the dynamics of the ruble of the Central Bank through the demand for imports, which involves a strong ruble.

From this it follows that from the support of exporters of the Central Bank, it goes to the support of importers.

It was assumed that based on the budget, the Central Bank would not lower the course below 70 rubles. But now it is a district of 64, and the Central Bank is not taking any action.

Probably in the new concept, the stronger the ruble, the better. This is a very bold hypothesis that puts everything upside down.

For today, thanks for your attention!

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