Friends, in view of recent events in world markets - after a sharp and dramatic sale, we can safely say that we are in the recession zone.
Quotes decreased by 20% of their maximum values. And according to one of the rules of Texanalysis, such a market can be officially called bear.
In recent years, thousands of new investors have appeared in Russia and many are now faced with a bear market for the first time. Giving in to emotions and due to the lack of great experience, investors are trying to sell everything.
However, many cannot do this, since their assets are blocked due to sanctions imposed on Russia. Investors could not even imagine that everything could be so bad.
Unfortunately, at the moment we were in such a situation when, in addition to the sanction of locks, a global crisis is also applied to us.
You probably heard the saying: “Fear when others are greedy and greedy, when others are afraid” are the words of the legendary investor Warren Buffett, which he said at a shareholder conference in 1986.
And already in 1987, Black Monday came - then the stock market collapsed 24% per day. Since then, sudden mass sales have become commonplace.
As for the current fall:
Firstly, everyone was frightened by the Fed’s strict policy, on June 15, the rate was raised by 0.75% to 1.75%-this is a record increase since 1994. By the end of the year, it is expected to increase to 3%.
Secondly, fear of the recession. It is not surprising that at such a time consumers spend less, reduce their expenses, provoking an economic decline. The unintentional consequence of this is mass dismissal.
We add here even growth in bets against the backdrop of record high inflation and it will not be difficult to understand why people are scared.
Thirdly, the fear of stagflation is a fatal slowdown in economic growth with an increase in inflation and an increase in unemployment.
The last time this was in the 1970s, when the Fed raised the interest rate to one of the highest levels in history.
What should we do?
Rule No. 1. Diversify your investments between the maximum possible number of sectors.
Everyone knows how the shares of technological companies collapsed by 78% during the bubble of bubble, and in 2018, cryptocurrencies collapsed by 85%. The more you diversify your funds, the more you reduce the risk.
For example, you can invest 35% in real estate (Reit), 35% (moreover, diversify your assets between American and Russian), cash - 20%, the remaining 10% are distributed between alternative types of investment (cryptocurrency, etc.).
Rule number 2. The investment guru is advised to continue to buy. I know how painful to observe the fall of your investments - you continue to buy in the hope of profit, but the price falls lower and lower.
It is hard to imagine that the situation may further deteriorate. But numerous studies show that the best solution in such a situation is to adhere to the plan - to continue to buy and keep investments for the long -term.
Because, throughout history, a bull market has always been advancing behind each bear period, bringing an average of 158% of profit with it.
Rule number 3. Do not panic and do not sell. Psychology, which makes you sell on a decline, is no different from the one that retains from investments when the market begins to recover.
Therefore, it is extremely important to constantly invest, because every day spent outside the market is a potential loss.
Thus, statistics prove that when constantly selling and trying to catch a good moment in the market, you risk missing the best days that will affect the total profit.
Rule No. 4. If you are prone to paranoia, keep a larger percentage in cash (15-20%).
Now many have been disappointed in investing due to sanctions and blocking of part of the shares. But I believe that investment (with amendments to the current situation) in any case will be more effective than money under the pillow.
Rule number 5. Stay away from marginal trade and any investment involving borrowed capital - this is a game with fire.
Rule number 6. If you need money over the next 3-5 years, then you should not invest yet.
If you adhere to these rules, you are guaranteed to earn money in the stock market for 20 years.
Since, in the entire history of the stock market, there was not a single loss-making 20-year period. Literally, you can buy at a peak, and then do nothing for 20 years and still earn money.
Results
Despite the fact that the collapse of the market can become a real disaster for you, do everything possible to change your view of what is happening. After all, conditions profit from a recession.
The best opportunities are opening precisely at a time when no one buys when everyone thinks that the market is doomed, and the mood in the market has nowhere worse.
Of course, this does not mean that we must wait for such events. But it is worth recognizing that this is the best time for purchases if you have free funds for long -term investments.
For today, thanks for your attention!
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