What to expect from the ruble? Will we see growth below 56 rubles per dollar or will there be a U -turn from current marks?
The market conditions are still the same, the ruble is still strengthened on an excessive currency sentence. However, with the entry of currency in some areas, problems may arise. Namely, problems with the receipt of the currency from the sale of gas.
Since June, gas pumping on the northern flow has already fallen by 30% (from 170 to 117 million cubic meters per day). And Gazprom says that pumping will fall even more - up to 100 million cubic meters per day.
The reason for this fall Gazprom calls the untimely return from the repair of gas pumping units by the German company Siemens.
It is difficult to say how true this information is, there is a high probability that Gazprom deliberately reduces gas supply to Europe. Since now the EU gas storage facilities are filled very quickly (compared to 2021, there is a lead for 5 weeks).
In general, the EU gas storages are filled by 52%, and under the new law they should be filled with 80% by November 1.
In May, the pace of pumping was 0.58% per day. And at such a pace, the EU would fill its storage facilities by 80% even before the beginning of autumn.
Now, given the significant decrease in supplies from Russia, this will take more time, although until November 1 they should be in time.
But in any case, Gazprom wants the EU to approach the winter less protected in the energy plane.
Also, from the United States, gas supplies were also reduced, as a result of the explosion at one of the largest LNG plants. Initially, it was expected that the plant would restore production in 3 weeks, and now they are already talking about 3 months.
Since June 8 (when the plant stopped), the supply of liquefied gas to Europe fell by 15%.
But a decrease in supplies by Gazprom can lead to a decrease in the flow of currency to Russia in the short term. However, a decrease in the flow of currency will be insignificant, since the reduction in supply is partly compensated by the increase in prices.
So, this will not lead to a weakening of the ruble, especially since at the moment there is a huge pressure on the currency holders in Russia.
Mosbirzha has already stopped trading by the Swiss Frank for an indefinite period. The exchange referred to difficulties in calculating the Swiss Frank due to Switzerland's sanctions.
For us, this will be a signal that it is definitely not worth storing electronic currency in Russian banks or brokers. It can be blocked at any time.
And this event (in addition to the introduction of a commission for storing currency) will push many investors to sell its currency, which will provide additional support for the ruble. But their volumes will not be compared with the volumes of the currency that exporters are drained daily on the exchange.
Given the fact that the tax period is just beginning and its peak will be on June 25, most likely, in the near future, the ruble will be strengthened. Also, intimidated individuals who sell their currency will also contribute to this.
On the other hand, there is a slight probability that the level of 56 rubles can stand, since not a single day below this level closed.
For today, thanks for your attention!
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